How many of your troubles are the result of bad decisions? Likely all of them. Even if some external factor is to blame, it can probably be traced back to a decision you made some time ago. Ultimately, our decisions produce our fate.
Every decision is a trade-off. As economist Tim Hartford puts it, “Everytime we say yes to a request, we are also saying no to anything else we might accomplish with the time.”
Tired at work? It’s because you valued watching another episode of The Tiger King (or other such nonsense) over adequate sleep.
Relationship difficulties? Maybe you want to avoid a stressful and difficult conversation more than you want to strengthen the relationship.
When faced with a decision, you’d think we would instinctively choose the best option. Unfortunately, that’s often not the case. We humans are terrible at assessing risks and rewards.
As much as we like to think we’re in control of our destiny, our brains often hijack our best intentions. We’re subject to a large number of biases that warp the way we view the world. These biases have recently been the basis for numerous articles and books, such as Shane Parrish’s The Great Mental Models.
An intimate knowledge of these biases helps us recognize when our judgement is clouded. To how many cognitive biases are we susceptible? The number differs depending on who you ask, but some sources place it at over a hundred. As such, books like Parrish’s are a worthwhile investment of time and money. But for the sake of simplicity, our psychological failures can be boiled down to three categories:
- The influence of our emotions
- Our poor perception of time
- The seduction of social status
The effect of our emotions is obvious – though hard to overcome. Think of the last time you got in a heated argument with someone close to you. Were you more concerned with being right or with how your conduct may impact the relationship going forward?
The bias most damaging to our decision making is likely the present bias. Where we value the present much more than the future.
There’s an interesting economics experiment where if you offer people $100 today or $150 a year from now, most people will take the $100 today.
In economics, this is known as “temporal discounting” — we “discount” the value of having something far off in the future compared to having something now.
This bias is at the root of our biggest deficiencies in physical and financial health: Our inability to save and invest, our avoidance of exercise, and our valuing of junk food over healthier options.
In a shift work context, I’ve been the victim of this bias a number of times; valuing the effects of a cup of coffee late in my shift over the quality of the coming sleep.
We’re also notoriously bad at compounding things over time. Our brains don’t think exponentially.
Want to test this in yourself? A standard piece of paper is 0.1 mm thick. If you fold it in half, it will then be 0.2 mm thick. Fold it in half again, 0.4 mm thick. How thick would it be if you were able to fold it back on itself 50 times?
If you said 112,589,990 km, or almost the distance to the sun, you were right.
Math like this is the reason Albert Einstein called compound interest the eight wonder of the world. It’s also why we should save and invest consistently – and early.
This applies to other areas of our life as well, where the math isn’t as obvious. We often rationalize poor choices with lines like “missing one workout isn’t going to hurt” or “one KFC Double Down won’t hurt” (Do they still sell those?). And ultimately we’re right. One probably won’t have much of an effect. But then we proceed to say these things every few days, drastically underestimating how much progress we’re actually giving up.
Imagine a skill that, if you practiced for 30 minutes a day, you’d get 1% better each day. Contrast two people practicing this hypothetical skill: one practices every day for a year, the other, every second day. At the end of the year, how much progress does each make?
Daily practice: 3,778% improvement. Every other day: 611% improvement. That’s six times the results for only two times the effort. And that’s only after a year. Multiply this out over a decade and it’s the difference between expert and merely good – between professional and amateur.
Virtuosic guitarist Paul Gilbert recognized this concept early and applied it to his practice:
“I practiced all the time for a long time. My goal was to learn one new thing every day, with no days off. It didn’t have to be complicated or fast—it could be a chord, a new place to bend, a new phrase, a Beatles song…anything. But if you add up 365 new things per year, and multiply it times a decade of practice…I don’t have my calculator nearby, but I’m guessing it’s a big number of things.”
And then there’s the influence of social status. This is one of the sneakier biases, where it’s hard to detect even in hindsight
The fact is that we are all subconsciously affected by what we perceive as valuable and socially desirable in others. It’s automatic. It colors our perceptions. It skews our emotions. When in the presence of extreme beauty, wealth or power, we all become a little bit dumber, a little bit more passive, and a lot more insecure.
The always entertaining Mark Manson provides a more detailed look at these concepts, as well as methods for making better decisions. Click the link below.
Manson also makes it clear that the worst decision is indecision. In the immortal lyrics of Neil Peart, “If you choose not to decide you still have made a choice”.
And a poor one at that.
3 Reasons Why You Make Terrible Decisions (And How To Stop) | Mark Manson
Strengthening Rhythms
A new review suggests the increased health risks in shift workers are largely the result of disrupted circadian rhythms; not unhealthy lifestyle choices and lower socioeconomic status, as previously believed.
While recognizing that more research is necessary to determine the most effective strategies, the review offers a few insights:
- Try to sleep for 7-8 hours and as close to evening as possible
- Opt for protein and vegetables over sugary snacks
- Eat at similar times each day and consume more calories earlier in the day
- Exercise at a similar time each day, at least 5 hours before bedtime
- Night shift workers should increase light exposure before shifts and throughout, but avoid blue light 2-3 hours before the end of the shift and on the commute home. The researchers recommend blue-light-blocking glasses for this purpose.
Using the body’s natural cycle to improve shift workers’ health | Medical News Today
(Early) Departure – REM
A new study suggests that it’s not only total sleep time that is important, but also the time spent in individual sleep stages. For every 5% reduction in REM sleep, mortality rates increase 13% to 17% among older and middle-aged adults.
As REM Sleep Declines, Life Span Suffers | WebMD
Rethink the Snooze Button
As shift workers, we have a greater need for alarm clocks than most. But the snooze button is one feature of the alarm clock we should avoid.
“Much of the latter part of our sleep cycle is comprised of REM sleep, or dream sleep, which is a restorative sleep state. And so, if you’re hitting the snooze button, then you’re disrupting that REM sleep or dream sleep.”
Disrupting late stage REM sleep can trigger a “fight or flight” response, increasing blood pressure and heart rate. Also, that brief period of extra sleep we get is not restorative.
In short, the snooze button may do more harm than good.
Is Hitting the Snooze Button Bad for your Health? | Cleveland Clinic
Reopen, then Reassess
Will schools reopen in the fall? One physician makes a compelling case why they should. And while there is far more at stake, I couldn’t help but resonate with this quote:
As a shift worker myself, I feel a kinship with the parents who work the night shift at McDonald’s, but their problems far outnumber mine. Who will watch their kids when they wake up bleary eyed with only a few hours of sleep? Now they’re also being tasked with teaching their elementary schoolers to add?
The Medical Case for Reopening Schools | Slate
Retirement Goals
You don’t want to work night shifts forever. So if you haven’t yet planned for retirement, the time to start is now. Setting specific goals according to your age can make the process easier and less overwhelming.
Financial Goals By Age So You Can Retire Comfortably | Financial Samurai
Stay Healthy-
Jason Glenn